Early voting has started in one of the swing states, Georgia; the voting is too close to the Georgia polls.
Georgia polls already had 328,000 voters who have voted in the Peach State, according to Gabriel Sterling, the COO of Georgia secretary of state Harris vs Trump. That number of applications is more than double the previous record of 136,000 set in 2020, the year Joe Biden became the first Democrat to win the state since 1992.
Since most Democrats vote earlier than Republicans, particularly by mail vote, early voting exploitation could see the Democratic Party improve its position across the state. Nevertheless, Georgia polls present Donald Trump as having a slightly better chance than Vice President Kamala Harris. 2021 Georgia poll tracker 538 has Trump ahead of Harris by 1 point while pollster Nate Silver’s tracker gives the ex-president a lead of 0.9 points.
The individual Georgia polls have for most part provided Trump with a lead of between 1 and 6 points, with most of the Georgia polls having Trump within the margin of error. For instance, an InsiderAdvantage poll carried between October 14 and 15 pegged Trump 2 points ahead of Clinton among 800 likely voters, a position that was well within the poll’s 3.7 percentage point error margin.
Between 7 and 10 October
A third Georgia polling by the RMG Research done a week earlier between 7 and 10 October put the former president 3 percent ahead of Norris among 731 likely voters. The poll had a 3.6 percentage point margin of error.
But some Georgia polls have indicated Trump is leading by even more, outside of the margin of error. A Fabrizio, Lee, & Associates Georgia poll conducted in October and funded by the Trump campaign also shows the former president leading by 5 points—outside the Georgia poll’s 3.5-point margin of error. A survey conducted by Quinnipiac University across the period September 25-29, 2012, with 942 likely voters showed similar trends; Trump was leading Clinton by five percentage points in the duet contest and had a much wider margin when third party candidates were factored in. Hurricane Helene and the Georgia poll carried a plus or minus 3.2 percentage points error margin.
Other polls indicate a tie, for instance, Trafalgar Group for October 7-8 and Redfield and Wilton Strategies for September 27-October 2. Collectively, eight Georgia polls that have been carried out since the start of September indicate that the race has been tied. A few polls have had Harris up by between 1 and 3 points – all of which fall within the margin of error. The vice president has conducted eight polls since early September.
The figures indicate clearly that the contest in the Georgia polls was nearly too close to call, despite President Biden’s victory by a meagre 12,000 votes in the previous election. However, the state is a battleground for their campaigns due to the 16 electoral votes in case of a win. The last time a presidential candidate who did not carry Georgia polls won the election was in 2012, when Mitt Romney won Georgia polls but lost the election to Barack Obama.
According to both 538’s forecast and Nate Silver’s forecast, Trump triumphs in the state.
A survey conducted by Harvard University, HarrisX, and the Harris Georgia Poll between October 11st and 13th revealed that Trump leads early voters in the battleground states with 48% to a 47% lead by Harris.
Some of the survey findings were based on a sample of 3,145 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. It did not indicate how many early voters were interviewed or the percentage lead that Trump enjoyed in each of the swing states at the time of the Georgia poll Trump vs Harris
The same survey indicated that Harris out polled Trump among early voters across the fifty states, 51% to 43%.
More than 150 million votes were cast in the 2020 elections, and approximately 70 percent of those votes were cast before election day Trump vs Harris.
The early in-person voting period ranges from October 15 to November 1 for polls Georgia residents, which will include multiple Saturday votes. In addition to that, some counties allow voting to be conducted on Sunday Trump vs Harris.
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