A new poll shows Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris amongst early voters within the swing states.
According to the poll by Harvard University, HarrisX, and The Harris Poll carried out from October 11 to 13, Trump has a slight lead in early voting in the battleground states, 48/47 Harris.
The poll involved 3,145 registered voters, as well as having a margin for error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. It was not clear how many of the early voters were interviewed.
Newsweek has asked the Harris and Trump campaigns for comments through email.
Democratic voters are likely to mail in and/or vote earlier than Republican voters are. On October 9, Gallup released a poll where 46% of Democrats said they would vote early and only 31% Republicans said the same.
Early voting is particularly popular in Harris’ home state of Texas, where the poll also showed her enjoying a statistically significant advantage in that demographic, 51 percent to Trump’s 43 percent.
Precincts with early voting could decide the election in the swing states. Some 70 percent of the over 150 million votes that was recorded in the 2020 poll out of which most were recorded before election day unlike in past years which recorded a very small number of early voters mainly due to the COVID pandemic.
Opinion poll conducted
According to the opinion poll conducted by Harvard University only, this week Trump was leading among the likely voters in the battleground states with 49% while Harris had only 47%.
Yet amongst likely citizens across the country, Harris was on a 49% chance against Trump’s 47% chance, while Trump fared better in genders, colour, Asian origin, and rural persons. Harris performed better among the women, black and Hispanic voters, and urban and suburban voters.
Harris is projected to carry the popular vote in November, with FiveThirtyEight placing her at 2.4 points ahead of Trump in the national polls at the time this article was written on Monday. If Harris is to claim the toss-up states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s second district, she gets to the minimum electoral votes needed to triumph.
FiveThirtyEight forecast shows Harris with a statistical probability of winning in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, which gives her a raw number of 276 electoral college votes excluding an upset in other states to put her over the top. The pollster also sees Trump winning Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, for a total of 262 votes in his tally.
But RealClearPolitics’ forecast shows that, taking into account the RCP polling average in each state, including toss-ups, Harris is to win in Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd District, while Trump will win in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him 302 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 236.
A Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll published last week showed Donald Trump Leads Kamala Harris in every swing state. The biggest lead was 5 points in Georgia. The poll, conducted between October 6 and 9, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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